Super Formula 2025 driver market update, early October - Part 1
The latest information on who could be going where next season... (All photos: JRP)
Originally I was planning to publish an interview with JRP President Yoshihisa Ueno this week, but for reasons that will become clear soon, I am no longer able to publish it. Watch out for a revised version of that article surfacing in between the Fuji and Suzuka rounds.
Instead, I am publishing a silly-season round-up in two parts. This first part looks at the state of play among the Honda teams, while the second part (to be published on Friday) will look at the Toyota camp. Please bear in mind that these are not firm predictions of how the grid will look in 2025, but a consideration of what I believe are the realistic possibilities.
Will Mugen’s split with Red Bull impact its lineup?
Last month, I broke the news via Motorsport.com that Red Bull’s association with Team Mugen will come to a conclusion at the end of the current season, rather than the end of 2025 as had been widely expected. This essentially scuppers hopes of a new Red Bull junior driver (such as Formula 2 title contender Isack Hadjar) coming to Japan, while also casting a degree of doubt over Ayumu Iwasa’s future at the team.
Red Bull funding is believed to have accounted for about half of the budget needed to field the #15 car, with the shortfall coming made up by Honda (the #16 driven by Tomoki Nojiri is funded directly by parent company M-TEC). However, the team’s first choice is to keep Iwasa, and it appears that efforts are ongoing to recruit sponsors whose funds would essentially replace the Red Bull half of the budget.
Motorsport.com’s Japanese edition quoted Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko as saying that Iwasa will stay in Super Formula next year, lending credibility to this theory. But the same outlet also then published a story with quotes from Mugen boss Hirokatsu Tanaka saying that nothing had been decided, perhaps indicating that the sponsorship money needed to keep Iwasa on board has not yet been found.
While it now looks more likely that Mugen will end up with an unchanged driver lineup, Iwasa being replaced still can’t be totally ruled out. Two possible alternatives to the Red Bull junior driver would be Felipe Drugovich and Daniil Kvyat, both of whom have negotiated unsuccessfully with TGM Grand Prix in the recent past.
Is change afoot at Nakajima Racing?
Elsewhere in the Honda camp, while Dandelion Racing looks unlikely to change drivers given the recent success of Tadasuke Makino and Kakunoshin Ohta, the same can’t be said for Nakajima Racing. Specifically, Ren Sato looks vulnerable amid a difficult campaign that has yielded just a single top-five finish in five races.
Sato was recruited to replace Toshiki Oyu at Nakajima, and after an encouraging first season for the youngster in 2023, Naoki Yamamoto has reasserted his dominance in the team this year. This has led to suggestions that Sato could be looking for an exit, and in that case, there would be no shortage of candidates to take over the #65 car.
Honda could opt to replace Sato with another driver from its own stable. Hiroki Otsu is angling for a comeback and would be a safe pair of hands who would have no issue playing the de facto number two to Yamamoto. Equally, Riki Okusa is well known to Nakajima in SUPER GT and would provide more of a long-term upside than Otsu.
Were Honda content to allow Nakajima to take an external driver with funding, Igor Fraga is understood to be holding out hope of being promoted from his reserve driver role, while Kvyat could try and revive his talks from last year with Nakajima after negotiations with TGM about replacing Nobuharu Matsushita didn’t pan out.
In the event that Sato leaves Nakajima, there aren’t too many other options for him in the Honda stable. A return to TGM Grand Prix (formerly Team Goh) isn’t impossible, but is something that Honda is unlikely to finance - meaning Sato could face the prospect of raising his own budget, like his Nakajima predecessor Oyu.
Will Juju stay on for a second season at TGM?
TGM is always the hardest to predict when it comes to the driver market, as the only team that exercises full independence from Honda and Toyota. Juju Noda has clearly garnered a lot of positive press from her campaign with the Servus Japan-run squad, in spite of a lack of results, but whether she intends to stay is hard to predict. The expectation within the team seems to be that she is more likely to stick around than not, but the risk of damage to her reputation if she doesn’t make a serious leap forward in her sophomore season could also play a factor in her decision-making.
Whether or not Noda stays, the second seat at TGM is very much up for grabs for anyone willing to pay for it. Drugovich is thought to have baulked at the team’s asking price last year, but if one side or the other budges, there’s still a chance for a deal to be done. Raoul Hyman and David Vidales are both looking for potential avenues back into Super Formula, and it’s hard to see where either would be able to go besides TGM. The same applies for Tatiana Calderon, although it’s not easy to imagine the Noda camp welcoming another female driver for fear of unflattering comparisons. Kaylen Frederick is also thought to have some contact with TGM this time last year before finally settling on Super Formula Lights with B-Max Racing.
Speaking of B-Max, rookie Iori Kimura has not had an easy time of it in the team’s sole entry this year, and Shun Koide closing in on the Super Formula Lights title could ramp up the pressure on the Russo-Japanese driver as the season winds down. Should Koide win the Lights title, it’s highly likely he would be promoted to Super Formula, and while there’s an outside chance of him going to Nakajima Racing, B-Max would have to be considered the more likely destination.
B-Max has outlined a desire to go back to running two cars next year, but that will most likely depend on external funding being found. Frederick would be the most obvious candidate here, given that he drives for the team in Lights, but the team has shown itself capable of springing a surprise in the foreign driver department.
Finally, Atsushi Miyake’s struggles this season are unlikely to make ThreeBond Racing an attractive destination for a newcomer or anyone looking for a change of scenery. Based on that, it’s fair to assume that Miyake would be the favourite to stay on, but as was the case this year, it’s likely to be one of the last seats to be decided, especially considering Miyake’s status as a works Nissan SUPER GT driver.
